Articles / DEEP DIVES
Texans 44, Chargers 22 through our numbers
SAT 14 NOV 2026
This game was one of our worst reads of Week 9. Here is what our numbers said and what happened.
The big miss. We had C.J. Stroud QB16 at 15.6. He completed 21 of 35 for 384 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT: 35.4 PPR points, QB1 of the week. Two Texans receivers we did not have in our top 50 WRs did the damage: Kayshon Boutte (4 catches, 125 yards, 2 TDs: 28.5, WR6) and Tank Dell (105 yards, 1 TD: 20.5, WR8).
Our call that missed. We posted 'start Woody Marks' at RB16 (13.9). He ran 18 times for 70 yards and caught 1 of 4 targets for 4 yards: 8.4 PPR points, RB27. Nico Collins, WR14 at 15.9 for us, caught 4 of 4 for 55 yards and 1 TD: 15.5, WR21.
What changed in the model. On Stroud's page his total passing EPA per game (trailing) is now +10.4, 3rd of 27 QBs, and his season-to-date PPG is 20.5, 5th. On the Week 10 board he is QB10.
Week 9 projections: ffguy board, published Sun Nov 8, 6:33 AM PT. Page stats: ffguy player pages, read Thu Nov 12 about 5:50 AM PT. Box scores: ESPN.
Post text
X · 9:30 AM PT
Week 9, Texans 44, Chargers 22: we had C.J. Stroud QB16. He threw for 384 yards and 5 TDs: 35.4 points, QB1. That one is on us. Our Woody Marks start call missed too: 8.4 points, RB27. Now: Stroud is 3rd of 27 QBs in passing EPA per game. Full board: link in bio
Bluesky · 9:35 AM PT
Week 9, Texans 44, Chargers 22: we had C.J. Stroud QB16. He threw for 384 yards and 5 TDs: 35.4 points, QB1. That one is on us. Our Woody Marks call missed too: RB27. https://ffguy.com/articles/ffg-2026-11-14-1?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=breakdown #FantasyFootball
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